[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun:  88/32

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jun             14 Jun             15 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. A few B-class 
and two C-class flares were recorded, the largest being a 
C1.9 flare at 1841UT. Both these C-class flares came from
an un-numbered region that is just rotating onto the disk 
in the North-East quarter. The solar wind speed decreased 
from 380 km/s to 320 km/s during the UT day. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained 
mostly slightly positive during the first half of the UT day 
and slightly negative during the second half. The solar 
activity is expected to remain low during the next 3 days. 
The new un-numbered region that is rotating on the disk now, 
and region 631(S10E01) are capable of producing C-class 
flares. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1210 1000
      Darwin               4   1320 1001
      Townsville           3   1310 1000
      Learmonth            1   0210 0000
      Culgoora             2   1210 1000
      Canberra             2   1210 1000
      Hobart               2   0210 2001
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             10   3233 2322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jun     7    Mostly quiet. 
14 Jun     7    Mostly quiet. 
15 Jun     7    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal during the next three days with slight possibility 
of minor degradations at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Jun    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 35% over with periods of
      depressions and significant degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jun    53    near predicted monthly values/enhanced by about 
                5 to 10%. 
14 Jun    53    near predicted monthly values/enhanced by about 
                5 to 10%. 
15 Jun    53    near predicted monthly values/enhanced by about 
                5 to 10%. 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 413 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    23000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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