[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun:  84/26

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jun             13 Jun             14 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. The solar 
wind speed decreased from 440 km/s to 390 km/s during the 
UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) mostly remained very close to the normal 
value. The solar activity is expected to remain very low 
during the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2122 0111
      Darwin               5   2122 1212
      Townsville           4   2122 0112
      Learmonth            4   2221 0211
      Culgoora             3   2122 0101
      Canberra             3   2122 0102
      Hobart               4   2122 0110
      Casey(Ant)           4   2221 111-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 JUN : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             11   3322 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jun     9    Mostly quiet. 
13 Jun     9    Mostly quiet. 
14 Jun     9    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal during the next three days with some possibility 
of minor degradations at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Jun    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 35% with periods of depressions
      and significant degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jun    53    near predicted monthly values/enhanced by about 
                5 to 10%. 
13 Jun    53    near predicted monthly values/enhanced by about 
                5 to 10%. 
14 Jun    53    near predicted monthly values/enhanced by about 
                5 to 10%. 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
during the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A4.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 477 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    76900 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"