[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun:  83/24

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jun             12 Jun             13 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. The solar 
wind speed decreased from 540 km/s to 430 km/s during the 
UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) remained mostly mildly northwards. The 
solar activity is expected to remain very low during the 
next 3 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3321 2032
      Darwin               7   3-21 2032
      Townsville           8   3321 2032
      Learmonth            8   3230 2032
      Culgoora             7   2321 2032
      Canberra             8   3321 2032
      Hobart               6   2220 2032
      Casey(Ant)          11   3330 1142
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 JUN : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            49   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14   3334 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jun    11    Quiet to unsettled 
12 Jun     9    Mostly quiet. 
13 Jun     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on 11 June and then 
gradually decline down to quiet levels during the next 
two days thereafter. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be 
observed at high latitudes on 11 June (UT day), otherwise 
HF conditions expected to remain mostly normal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Jun    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over for some time with periods
      of depressions and significant degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jun    54    near predicted monthly values 
12 Jun    56    near predicted monthly values/enhanced by about 
                5%. 
13 Jun    58    near predicted monthly values/enhanced by about 
                5 to 10%. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 
8 June and is current for interval 10-11 June. There are 
slight chances of minor depressions in MUFs and slight 
degradations in HF conditions in Southern Australian/NZ 
regions on 11 June UT day, otherwise HF conditions expected 
to remain mostly normal. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A4.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 460 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   133000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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