[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 10 09:41:16 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. The
solar wind speed first decreased from 460 km/s to
420 km/s (approx.) by 1000UT and then showed a gradual
increase during the rest of the day, reaching 480 km/s
by the time of this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor
fluctuations (approx +/-5nT) on both sides of the normal
value throughout the UT day today. The solar activity is
expected to remain very low during the next 3 days.
However, due to a possible glancing blow from a partial
halo CME observed on 07 June, the solar wind stream may
get strengthened on 10 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet to unsettled.
Isolated active periods recorded at some stations.
Estimated Indices 09 Jun : A K
Australian Region 11 2233 3322
Darwin 11 2233 3322
Townsville 12 2233 3332
Learmonth 10 2223 3322
Culgoora 11 2233 3322
Canberra 15 2234 3422
Hobart 15 2234 3422
Casey(Ant) 12 3323 3-22
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 JUN :
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 3213 2321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jun 20 Mostly unsettled with the chance of active and
isolated minor storm periods.
11 Jun 14 Mostly unsettled.
12 Jun 10 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 8 June
and is current for interval 9-10 June. Mildly elevated
geomagnetic activity may be expected on 10 June (UT day)
due to the anticipated glancing impact of a partial halo
CME observed on 07 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations may be observed in HF
conditions at mid and high latitudes on 10 June (UT day)
due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jun 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by upto 40% with periods of depressions
and significant degradations over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jun 45 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 50 depressed by about 5%/near predicted monthly
values.
12 Jun 55 near predicted monthly values/enhanced by about
5%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on
8 June and is current for interval 10-11 June. Minor to
mild deppressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions
may be observed in southern regions on UT day 10 June due
to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity on this day.
Minor depressions in MUFs are possible in these regions
during the first half of the UT day 11 June as well.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: A5.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 68800 K
Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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