[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 June 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jun             10 Jun             11 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have remained slightly elevated over 
the past 24 hours ranging from 400-480 km/s. The faint partial 
halo CME observed early on 7 June is expected to have a glancing 
impact on the Earth late on 9 June to 10 June. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2213 2233
      Darwin               7   1213 2223
      Townsville           8   2213 2232
      Learmonth            8   2213 2233
      Culgoora             7   1113 2233
      Canberra             8   1213 2233
      Hobart               8   2213 2233
      Casey(Ant)          11   2323 3232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3122 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jun    15    Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of 
                active and isolated minor storm periods late 
                in the UT day. 
10 Jun    20    Mostly unsettled with the chance of active and 
                isolated minor storm periods. 
11 Jun    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 8 June and 
is current for interval 9-10 June. Mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity is expected late in the UT day of 9 June and into 10 
June with the anticipated glancing impact of a partial halo CME. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
10 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
11 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions may be mildly degraded for mid-high latitudes 
for 10-11 June as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Jun    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jun    55    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
10 Jun    45    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
11 Jun    50    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 8 June 
and is current for interval 10-11 June. HF conditions may be 
mildly degraded for southern regions for 10-11 June as the result 
of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A6.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 449 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    56700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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