[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 04

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*    ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jun             09 Jun             10 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have declined from the mildly elevated 
levels of 6 June and are now approximately 420km/s. A faint halo 
CME was observed early on 7 June and is expected to have a weak 
impact on the Earth late on 9 June to 10 June. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2212 2223
      Darwin               5   2212 2123
      Townsville          11   3--3 223-
      Learmonth            7   2212 3123
      Culgoora             5   2212 2113
      Canberra             6   2202 2223
      Hobart               5   2112 2213
      Casey(Ant)           8   3322 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 JUN : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             11   3333 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jun    10    Quiet to unsettled 
09 Jun    15    Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of 
                active and isolated minor storm periods late 
                in the UT day. 
10 Jun    20    Mostly unsettled with the chance of active and 
                isolated minor storm periods. 
COMMENT: Mildly elevated geomagnetic activity is expected late 
in the UT day of 9 June and into 10 June with the anticipated 
impact of a weak CME. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions may be mildly degraded for mid-high latitudes 
for 10 June as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Jun    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jun    60    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
09 Jun    60    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
10 Jun    45    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions may be mildly degraded for southern regions 
for 10 June as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jun
Speed: 495 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   117000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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