[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 June 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jun             08 Jun             09 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              90/34
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have remained elevated during the 
past 24 hours ranging from approximately 480km/s to 540km/s. 
This is possibly due to effects from a weak coronal hole arriving 
earlier than expected. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2323 3122
      Darwin               8   2322 3122
      Townsville           8   2322 3111
      Learmonth            9   2323 2131
      Culgoora             8   2323 2112
      Canberra             9   2323 3112
      Hobart               7   2223 2111
      Casey(Ant)          11   2432 3122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 JUN : 
      Townsville          18   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            50   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              50   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   3313 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jun    15    Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of 
                isolated active periods. 
08 Jun    12    Quiet to unsettled 
09 Jun    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions expected for the 
next few days with isolated active periods possible due to effects 
from a weak coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jun    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jun    55    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
08 Jun    60    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
09 Jun    60    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few 
days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A7.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    92000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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