[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 16 09:44:46 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JUNE 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 109/59

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jun             17 Jun             18 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Region 
634(N11E47) produced a C1.1-flare at 2001UT. The solar 
wind speed gradually increased from 450 to 560 km/s 
(approx.) during the UT day. This strengthening of the 
solar wind stream is due to the previously anticipated 
coronal hole effect. This effect is expected to continue 
for approximately two more days. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated 
between +/- 10nT almost the whole day, remaining mostly on 
the negative side. Region 634 and 635 hold potential for 
M-class activity. The solar activity is expected to remain 
mostly low to moderate during the next few days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2232 4322
      Darwin              14   2332 4332
      Townsville          12   2232 4322
      Learmonth           14   2332 4332
      Culgoora            12   2232 4322
      Canberra            12   2232 4322
      Hobart              12   2232 4322
      Casey(Ant)          13   1333 4322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   2133 4332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jun    16    Unsettled to Active 
17 Jun    16    Unsettled to Active 
18 Jun    14    Mostly unsettled. Quiet and Active periods possible. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly enhanced upto active levels during the next two 
days due to a coronal hole effect. The effect may be 
intermittent. There may also be a slight possibility of 
isolated minor storm periods during these two days if Bz 
remains significantly negative. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal on low latitudes during the next two days. Minor 
degradations on mid latitudes and minor to moderate 
degradations on high latitudes are possible during this 
period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Jun    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 25% with periods of 
      significant degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jun    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%. 
17 Jun    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%. 
18 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal during the next 2 days. However, minor depressions 
and degradations are possible, especially in the Southern 
Aus/NZ regions during this period. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    50100 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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