[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 26 10:33:33 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity today. Active
region 540 has now rotated beyond the west solar limb. The remaining
visible active regions have low flare potential.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 20 3343 4344
Darwin 17 4233 3344
Townsville 16 3333 4334
Learmonth 23 3333 5444
Culgoora 16 3333 4334
Canberra 21 3344 4343
Hobart 23 3444 4343
Casey(Ant) 23 3454 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 JAN :
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 33
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15 4224 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
27 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Jan 20 active
COMMENT: From late in the UT day Jan 24 to early Jan 25 there
was a period of significant southerly bias in the Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field. With declinig solar wind
velocities, little subsequent geomagnetic activity was observed.
Between 02 and 06UT there was a minor disturbance in the solar
wind, with subsequent increases in velocity and polarity fluctuations.
This was followed by several hours of unsettled to active geomagnetc
conditions at low to mid latitudes, with isolated storm periods
at high latitudes. Origin of the transient disturbance is unknown.
Expect continuing mostly unsettled levels today, with the possibility
of a brief return to active conditions after day two due to a
favourably positioned small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Fair Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Fair Fair
28 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mid-latitude depressions observed after local dawn yesterday
persisted throughout the day. These were in response to mildly
elevated geomagnetic activity. Expect similar conditions next
two days, with possible disturbances extending to higher latitudes
on day three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night
and after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan 10 Depressed 10-30% S Aus/NZ regions, otherwise
near predicted monthly values.
27 Jan 20 Depressed 10-20% S Aus/NZ regions, otherwise
near predicted monthly values.
28 Jan 30 Depressed 5-15% S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions, otherwise
near predicted monthly values.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 25 January
and is current for interval 26-27 January. Depressions observed
yesterday after local dawn persisted throughout the UT day. Widespread
depressions observed again today at mid to high latitudes, in
response to slightly elevated geomagnetic activity of unknown
origin. Expect continuing mid-latitude depressions today and
tomorrow. Possible further disturbance at high latitudes on day
3 due to a mild coronal hole wind stream effect.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 495 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 50300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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