[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 25 10:25:13 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity today. Most
active solar regions have shown continuing decay in penumbral
coverage and magnetic complexity. A north-polar coronal hole
with a small equatorial extension is now moving into geoeffective
position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 3333 3223
Darwin 11 -332 3223
Townsville 12 3333 3223
Learmonth 12 3332 3323
Culgoora 11 2333 3222
Canberra 13 3333 3323
Hobart 12 3233 3322
Casey(Ant) 17 34-4 3233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 JAN :
Townsville 18 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 69 (Active)
Canberra 97 (Minor storm)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 38 4545 5553
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 12 Unsettled
26 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined steadily over the UT day,
after the elevated levels due to recent shock events. Early in
the UT day, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
switched to northward polarity, after an extended period of southward
polarity in preceding days. Geomagnetic activity subsequently
declined to mostly quiet levels, with isolated active to minor
storm periods at high latitudes only. A minor disturbance in
the solar wind was observed on the ACE satellite at 24/0600.
This may have been related to the second filament eruption observed
on Jan 21. Expect continuing quiet to unsettled levels today,
with the possibility of a brief return to active conditions
on day three due to a favourably positioned small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: General improvement in HF propagation observed over
the UT day. Significant depressions observed at some mid-latitude
sites after local dawn today. These persist at the time of report
issue.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan 40 Depressed 10-20% after local dawn at mid latitudes,
otherwise near predicted monthly values.
26 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant depressions observed at some mid latitude
sites after local dawn today. Expect generally improving HF conditions
over the UT day. Possible further disturbance at high latitudes
on day 3 due to a mild coronal hole wind stream effect.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 538 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 71700 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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