[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 27 10:36:02 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION:* YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: A C6 level flare was observed late in the UT day Jan
25. Only B- to minor C-class activity was observed on Jan 26.
The currently identified active regions are due to rotate off
the west solar limb soon. The latest LASCO imagery shows a 90-degree
halo CME in the south-eastern solar quadrant. Region of origin
is uncertain, possibly a backside event
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A K
Australian Region 15 3233 4334
Darwin 14 3223 4333
Townsville 7 22-- ----
Learmonth 12 3223 3333
Culgoora 12 2233 3334
Canberra 16 3333 4334
Hobart 16 3333 4333
Casey(Ant) 18 ---4 3334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 JAN :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 61 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 33 5554 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Jan 20 active
29 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Moderate velocity and polarity fluctuations were observed
in the solar wind over the UT day. Velocity trended down until
about 20UT, when it commenced a slight upward trend, accompanied
by a polarity swithch in the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field, from an overall neutral to southerly bias. Geomagnetic
conditions were mostly unsettled at low to mid latitudes, with
a brief active period after mid-UT day. Variable active to minor
storm periods were observed at high latitudes. Expect mostly
unsettled conditions today, with the possibility of isolated
active periods. Possibility of a brief return to active conditions
on day two due to a favourably positioned small coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Low to mid-latitude depressions observed after local
dawn yesterday persisted throughout the local day/evening. Mild
depressions are observed again today after local dawn but showing
signs of recovery at most locations. Expect similar conditions
today, with possible disturbances extending to higher latitudes
on day two.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jan -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jan 25 Depressed 10-20% S Aus/NZ regions, otherwise
near predicted monthly values.
28 Jan 30 Depressed 5-15% S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions, otherwise
near predicted monthly values.
29 Jan 20 Depressed 10-20% S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions,
otherwise near predicted monthly values.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 25 January
and is current for interval 26-27 January. Spread-F conditions
observed at high latitudes. Evening spread-F observed in S Aus/NZ
regions, also sporadic-E around local dawn today. Post-dawn depressions
observed yesterday persisted throughout the local day. Widespread
minor depressions observed again today at mid to high latitudes,
but showing signs of recovery at most locations. Expect gradually
improving HF conditions today Equatorial/N Aus region, with continuing
mid-high latitude depressions today and tomorrow. Possible further
disturbance at high latitudes tomorrow due to a mild coronal
hole wind stream effect.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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