[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 21 10:52:23 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:**RED** ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6/2N 0743UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Further M-class flare activity is possible from solar
region 540. Solar wind speeds have declined to approximately
500 km/s over the past 24 hours and are expected to again increase
with the arrival of anticipated CME events. A glancing blow from
the CME associated with the M5-flare observed on 17 January is
still possible for 21 January. A direct impact from the CME observed
in association with the C8-flare on 19 January is expected on
22 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 14 3332 4323
Darwin 13 3322 432-
Townsville 11 2332 3323
Learmonth 16 3323 4423
Culgoora 10 2322 3322
Canberra 13 2332 4322
Hobart 15 2432 4322
Casey(Ant) 19 4--4 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 JAN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 72 (Active)
Hobart 70 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 17 3234 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 25 Mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor
storm periods possible.
22 Jan 50 Mostly active to minor storm with major storm
periods possible.
23 Jan 25 Mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor
storm periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 20 January and
is current for interval 20-21 January. Solar wind speeds have
declined to approximately 500 km/s over the past 24 hours resulting
in mostly unsettled to active levels. Solar wind speeds are again
expected to increase for the next few days with the arrival of
anticipated CME events. A glancing blow from the CME associated
with the M5-flare observed on 17 January is still possible for
21 January with active to minor storm periods possible. A direct
impact from the CME observed in association with the C8-flare
on 19 January is expected on 22 January with minor to major storm
periods possible. Minor storm periods may persist into 23 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
22 Jan Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
23 Jan Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mild depressions are expected at times for 21 January
as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity.
Significant depressions are expected at times for 22-23 January
as the result of anticipated significant geomagnetic activity
levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed 10-20% at times during local day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Jan 10 depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 20 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions are expected at times for 21 January
as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity.
Significant depressions are expected at times for 22-23 January
as the result of anticipated significant geomagnetic activity
levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 605 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 148000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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