[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 20 11:00:24 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0532UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 1241UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Further M-class flare activity is expected from solar
region 540. Solar wind speeds have remained elevated due to a
coronal hole solar wind stream and expected to remain mildly
elevated for the next day or two.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 17 3233 4433
Darwin 16 3223 4433
Townsville 15 2223 4433
Learmonth 16 2233 4433
Culgoora 16 2233 4433
Canberra 16 2233 4433
Hobart 20 3333 5423
Casey(Ant) 26 4--5 3433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 JAN :
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 62 (Active)
Canberra 129 (Severe storm)
Hobart 100 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18 2443 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 20 Mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor
storm periods possible.
21 Jan 16 Unsettled to active
22 Jan 12 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Elevated solar wind conditions may persist for 20 January
due to the present coronal hole solar wind stream resulting in
mostly unsettled to active levels. There is also the possibility
of isolated active to minor storm periods on Jan 20 due to an
anticipated glancing blow from a CME associted with the M5 flare
observed on Jan 17. A Type II radio sweep was observed following
the M1-flare from solar region 540 early in the UT day of Jan
18. CME occurence has not yet been confirmed due to lack of LASCO
imagery, but this region is favourably positioned for geoeffective
events.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
21 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times at mid-high
latitudes for 19 January, with mild depressions again possible
at times for mid-high latitudes for 20-21 January due to persisting
mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels. SWF's possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed 10-20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed 10-20%.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan 35 depressed 10-20% for southern regions/near predicted
monthly values
21 Jan 35 depressed 10-20% for southern regions/near predicted
monthly values
22 Jan 45 depressed 5-15% for southern regions/near predicted
monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 19 January
and is current for interval 19-20 January. Mild depressions were
observed at times for southern regions for 19 January, with mild
depressions again possible at times for regions for 20-21 January
due to persisting mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels.
SWF's possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 567 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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