[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 19 10:48:34 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/1N 0017UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Active region 540 produced an M1.4 level flare at 0010.
Considerable radio noise was reported in association with this
event including a strong Type II radio sweep with an estimated
shock speed approaching 1000 km/s. Region 537 remains active
but is now at the west solar limb. An equatorial extension of
the present coronal hole should maintain elevated solar wind
speeds for the next 2-3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 11 2332 3233
Darwin 8 2222 3223
Townsville 9 2331 2233
Learmonth 10 3332 2223
Culgoora 10 2332 2233
Canberra 10 2332 2233
Hobart 13 2342 3233
Casey(Ant) 20 ---- 4244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 JAN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 75 (Active)
Hobart 88 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 3234 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
20 Jan 20 active
21 Jan 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Elevated solar wind conditions may persist for the next
2-3 days due to an equatorial extension to the present coronal
hole. There is a possibility of isolated active to minor storm
periods on Jan 20 due to an anticipated glancing blow from a
CME associted with the M5 flare observed on Jan 18. A strong
Type II radio sweep was observed following the M1 level flare
from solar region 540 early in the UT day Jan 18. CME occurence
could not be confirmed due to lack of LASCO imagery, but this
region is favourably positioned for geoeffective events.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Isolated mild depressions observed Jan 18 at low latitudes
after local dawn. Mild depressions observed after local dawn
today at central/southern Aus latitudes. There is a possibility
of isolated periods of degradation at mid to high latitudes on
Jan 20 due to anticipated geomagnetic disturbance from the CME
observed Jan 17. Mild coronal hole wind stream effects are expected
to persist for the next 2-3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
20 Jan 35 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jan 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild coronal hole wind stream effects are likely to
persist for another 2-3 days. Expect isolated periods of disturbance
at mid to high latitudes and possible minor depressions after
local dawn at low latitudes. Possible isolated periods of depressions
on Jan 20 due to an anticipated glancing blow from the CME reported
on Jan 17.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 624 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 172000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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