[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 22 10:43:15 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION:* YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Active region 540 has declined somewhat in penumbral
coverage. Flare activity has also declined from the moderate
levels of previous days. An eruptive filament was reported to
have occurred early in the UT day, but could not be optically
confirmed by the ASFC. LASCO imagery is inconclusive, but indicates
the possibility of a halo CME during the early part of the UT
day. Further analysis will be required to determine the likliehood
of an earth-directed shock from this event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 21 Jan : A K
Australian Region 13 2233 4233
Darwin 13 3-33 3234
Townsville 13 2233 4233
Learmonth 18 2232 5342
Culgoora 12 2232 4232
Canberra 13 2332 4232
Hobart 16 2342 4332
Casey(Ant) 22 3-54 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 JAN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 60 (Unsettled)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16 3332 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jan 50 Storm levels
23 Jan 25 Active
24 Jan 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 21 January and
is current for interval 21-23 January. The glancing shock arrival
anticipated on Jan 21 from the CME observed on Jan 17 did not
eventuate. Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods observed at high latitudes
only. Solar wind speed has continued to decline over the UT day.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
fluctuated +/- 5nT over the UT day, with a brief period of southward
bias during the middle part of the UT day. A direct impact from
the CME observed in association with the C8-flare on 19 January
is expected on 22 January with minor to major storm periods possible.
Minor storm periods may persist into 23 January. There may be
a further shock arrival after Jan 23 due to a possible halo CME
associated with an eruptive solar filament reported on Jan 21.
This event is subject to further analysis.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jan Poor Poor Poor
23 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
24 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Significant depressions are expected at times for 22-23
January as the result of anticipated significant geomagnetic
activity levels.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jan 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jan 20 depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 30 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
24 Jan 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 21 January
and is current for interval 21-23 January. Significant depressions
are expected at times for 22-23 January as the result of anticipated
significant geomagnetic activity levels. Anticipated geomagnetic
activity is a consequence of recent solar flare activity. Another
shock arrival is possible after Jan 23, but this event is subject
to further analysis.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jan
Speed: 552 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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