[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jan             12 Jan             13 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was variable over the past 24 hours, 
fluctuating between 500 and 600 km/sec. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field was southward by up to 10nT 
00-08UT then northward. This variable condtions may be due to 
arrival of weak and indistinct CME(s), and coronal hole wind 
stream effects. Solar flare activity was low, with solar region 
536 producing only two high C class events. However, both 536(S12W41) 
and 537(NO5E24) remain flare capable, and are the only interesting 
regions on disk. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 10 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   3334 4342
      Darwin              19   2334 4341
      Townsville          17   2334 4331
      Learmonth           22   2334 5341
      Culgoora            17   2334 4332
      Canberra            25   3444 4442
      Hobart              21   3443 4342
      Casey(Ant)          24   4--4 4432
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 JAN : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            79   (Active)
      Hobart             101   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             21   2354 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jan    14    Unsettled to Active 
12 Jan    12    Unsettled 
13 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods observed in association with southward 
IMF conditions. The geomagnetic field is expected to decline 
in activity over coming days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Improving HF conditins expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jan    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jan    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
12 Jan    70    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Jan    70    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUF depressions persisted longer than expected local
day yesterday, probably in association with southwrad IMF conditions. 
In particular strong depressions were observed in Northern Australia 
during local night hours. Regional MUFs for today are initially 
expected to be 10-15% depressed recovering as the day progresses. 
A general trend of improving HF conditions remains expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 561 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:   244000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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