[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 January 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 10 09:34:06 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0122UT possible lower West Pacific
M3/2N 0144UT Confirmed lower Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased from 550 to 650 km/sec over
the UT day, with a mildy southward interplanetary magnetic field.
A possible weak indistinct shock signature may have passed the
Earth around 15UT. There is a chance for another weak coronal
mass ejection (CME) shock signature today. The M3/2N flare was
produced by solar region 537. Whilst this flare had a slowish
xray decline, the Culgoora Radiospectrograph did not show a Type
II sweep, implying that no mass ejection was associated with
this event. However, LASCO imagery did show a narrow southward
directed CME, with little expansion, first visible in C3 at 02:42UT.
This CME is considered non Earth directed. Solar region 537 located
at N04E50, and 536 located at N05W04 remain flare and CME capable.
Also, solar region 537 is reported to be showing rotation,
which can sometimes be a prelude to a significant flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 18 3343 3433
Darwin 16 3333 3432
Townsville 17 2343 3432
Learmonth 20 3233 4532
Culgoora 17 2343 3433
Canberra 21 3353 3433
Hobart 20 2353 3432
Casey(Ant) 33 --54 3544
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 JAN :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 9 2113 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 16 Unsettled to active
11 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Active periods observed due to transit of weak CME.
Overall gradual decline in activity now expected, due to easing
of solar wind conditions. Active periods possible again today
due to another weak CME.
A weak (23nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 1524UT on 09 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild dgeradation in HF conditions observed local night
hours, mid to highlatitudes. Generally improving trend in HF
conditions in coming days. Chance of mild to moderately degraded
conditions at mid to high latitudes today due to possible arrival
of another weak mass ejection.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan 50 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 70 near predicted monthly values
12 Jan 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions overnight, due to
transit of weak coronal mass ejection. Brief mild depressions
of 10-15% may be experienced this morning at some southern Aus/NZ
region sites. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted
monthly values, however there is a chance for further mildly
degraded conditions today, during local night hours, due to possible
arrival of another weak mass ejection.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 563 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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