[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JANUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jan             13 Jan             14 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             130/84
COMMENT: Solar wind speed varied between 550-650km/sec over the 
UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was southward by up to 10nT 06-17UT. No significant flares 
observed over past 24 hours. However, the two solar regions numbered 
536 and 537 still have flare potential. SOHO EIT imagery shows 
some new solar regions, both north and south of the solar equator, 
will rotate onto the visible solar disk in coming days. The region 
just north of the equator may be the return of solar region 528, 
which was quite a large region, but only produced two M1 flares 
on its previous rotation. A narrow north polar extension coronal 
hole is visible in the Sun's eastern solar hemisphere. The Earth 
is expected to enter the wind stream from this hole around 16 
Jan. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 11 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   2333 4432
      Darwin              22   2433 543-
      Townsville          16   2333 4422
      Learmonth           22   2233 5532
      Culgoora            14   1233 4421
      Canberra            16   2233 4432
      Hobart              16   1243 4422
      Casey(Ant)          28   --54 4432
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 JAN : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            76   (Active)
      Hobart              62   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             24   3554 3342     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jan    12    Unsettled 
13 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled conditions expected next few days. 
Chance for isolated active periods today due to moderately elevated 
solar wind speed conditions. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions at high latitudes. Improving 
HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jan    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jan    70    near predicted monthly values 
13 Jan    70    near predicted monthly values 
14 Jan    70    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Brief mild MUF depressions observed after local dawn 
yesterday. A general trend of improving HF conditions remains 
expected. Isolated fadeouts possible. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 554 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    95700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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