[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 28 10:10:34 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.7 26/2230UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 29 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Region 564 maintains its magnetic complexity but has
produced no major flares in the past 24 hours. There is still
potential for major flare activity over the next two days, after
which this region will be close to the west solar limb. Some
brightening and surging has been observed behind the east limb,
indicating the possible approach of a new active region. A recurrent
coronal hole in the northern hemisphere is now past solar central
meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 12 2323 2242
Darwin 12 2323 2243
Townsville 12 2323 2242
Learmonth 11 2223 2242
Culgoora 9 1323 2132
Canberra 12 2323 2243
Hobart 9 1323 2132
Casey(Ant) 17 2444 3132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 FEB :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 1112 2321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 12 Unsettled
29 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
01 Mar 20 active
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field exhibited moderate polarity fluctuations throughout the
UT day. Solar wind speed has gradually increased over the UT
day to about 400 km/s at the time of report issue. Isolated active
periods were observed at high latitudes in the first half of
the UT day. There was an extended period of southward IMF late
in the day, leading to isolated active periods observed at lower
latitudes. Expect continuing unsettled conditions today and tomorrow,
with the chance of isolated active periods. Active conditions
expected by day three due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream.
Solar region 564 has good potential for further major flare activity,
with a strong possibility of earth-directed solar wind shocks,
from any CME originating from this region over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions mostly near normal. Chance of isolated
periods of disturbance at high latitudes in association with
geomagnetic activity. Degraded conditions at mid to high latitudes
expected after day two due to recurrent coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
29 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 26 February
and is current for interval 27-29 February (SWFs) . HF conditions
mostly near normal. Solar active region 564 maintains good potential
for further major flare activity, with the possibility of short-wave
fadeout conditions during local daylight hours. HF communicators
are advised to monitor the IPS website for notification of further
flare activity over the next few days. There is a possibility
of slightly degraded HF conditions after day two due to a recurrent
coronal hole wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 16300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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