[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 29 10:38:50 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Region 564 maintains its magnetic complexity but has
produced no major flares in the past 24 hours. There is still
potential for major flare activity today from this region. Regions
565 and 567 also have mixed magnetic structures and have some
potential for major flare activity. A recurrent coronal hole
in the northern hemisphere is now geoeffectively positioned.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 2343 2323
Darwin 11 2333 2323
Townsville 11 2333 2323
Learmonth 11 2333 2232
Culgoora 11 1333 2323
Canberra 13 2343 2323
Hobart 17 2343 3433
Casey(Ant) 22 3-54 3332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 FEB :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 2313 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
01 Mar 20 active
02 Mar 20 active
COMMENT: The leading edge of a northern hemisphere coronal hole
is now geoeffectively positioned. Solar wind speed increased
steadily over the UT day to around 500 km/s at the time of report
issue. Bz component of the IMF has fluctuated moderately about
neutral. A sustained period of southward bias early in the UT
day preceded minor to major geomagnetic storm periods observed
only at high latitudes between 04-08UT. Expect continuing elevation
in solar wind parameters over the next 24 hours, with periods
of active geomagnetic conditions for the next three days. Solar
region 564 has good potential for further major flare activity,
with a strong possibility of earth-directed solar wind shocks,
from any CME originating from this region over the next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions at mid to high latitudes expected
for the next two to three days due to recurrent coronal hole
wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Slightly below predicted monthly values over
the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values PNG/N Aus. Depressed
10-20% at times S Aus/NZ regions.
01 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values PNG/N Aus. Depressed
10-20% at times S Aus/NZ regions.
02 Mar 35 Near predicted monthly values PNG/N Aus. Depressed
10-20% at times S Aus/NZ regions.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 26 February
and is current for interval 27-29 February (SWFs) . Degraded
HF conditions expected S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions at times over
the next three days due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream.
Solar active region 564 maintains good potential for further
major flare activity, with the possibility of short-wave fadeout
conditions during local daylight hours today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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