[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 27 10:46:25 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 29 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1/2N 0203UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 29 Feb
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Region 564 has developed into a large delta magnetic
complex. This region produced a short-duration X1.1 level flare
at 0200UT, followed by high C-class flares at 1410 and 2020 UT
and an M5.7 level flare at 2220. The region is currently in a
favourable geoeffective location. However, all of these flares
were characterised by the absence of radio sweep events, so the
likliehood of associated CME's is low. Available LASCO C3 imagery
indicates no CME asssociated with the X-class flare or the earlier
of the high C-class flares. Region 564 maintains good potential
for further major flare activity. A recurrent coronal hole in
the northern hemisphere is now just east of solar central meridian.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 3100 1002
Darwin 3 3100 1012
Townsville 3 3100 1113
Learmonth 3 3100 2002
Culgoora 1 2100 1002
Canberra 1 2100 1002
Hobart 3 2211 1001
Casey(Ant) 6 3321 1012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 FEB :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 8 2123 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over
the UT day. Solar wind speed settled to a nominal value of about
310 km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field recovered early in the UT day from a negative bias and
remained mostly neutral throughout the UT day. Expect mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions for the next few days. A recurrent
coronal hole is now just east of solar central meridian and the
earth may encounter an elevated wind stream from this feature
on day three, with the possibility of isolated active periods.
Solar region 564 has good potential for further major flare activity,
with a strong possibility of earth-directed solar wind shocks,
from any CME resulting from this region over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions mostly near normal. Chance of isolated
periods of disturbance at high latitudes in association with
geomagnetic activity. Chance of short-wave fadeouts during
daylight hours at low to mid latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values
29 Feb 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions mostly near normal. Major solar flares
from Active Region 564 at 0200 and 2220UT resulted in brief short-wave
fadeout conditions in the Australasian region. Although this
region is favourably positioned on the solar disk, no further
geophysical consequence is anticipated from these events. The
region maintains good potential for further flare activity. HF
communicators are advised to monitor the IPS website for notification
of further flare activity over the next few days. There is a
possibility of slightly degraded HF conditions after day three
due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list