[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Feb             27 Feb             28 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Active region 564 produced a number of minor flares 
over the UT day, including a C8 level flare at 1220 UT. Although 
the flare was of moderate duration, no CME was observed in LASCO 
imagery in association with this event. This region maintains 
moderate magnetic complexity and has potential for further flare 
activity. Radio noise and burst activity has been observed for 
some hours on the Culgoora radiospectrograph at the time of report 
issue. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2113 2012
      Darwin               4   2112 1112
      Townsville           3   1103 1012
      Learmonth            3   20-- ----
      Culgoora             4   1113 1012
      Canberra             4   1113 2012
      Hobart               4   1113 2012
      Casey(Ant)           9   3332 2121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3333 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
27 Feb    13    Unsettled to Active 
28 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over 
the UT day. Solar wind speed remained steady at about 350 km/s. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
was mostly neutral, but developed a southward bias of about 4 
nT late in the UT day. Expect mostly quiet to unsettled conditions, 
with the chance of isolated active periods, for the next few 
days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions mostly near normal. Chance of isolated 
periods of disturbance at high latitudes in association with 
geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Feb    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Feb    50    near predicted monthly values 
27 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Feb    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions mostly near normal. Mid to southern Aus 
regions may experience mild depressions overnight and around 
local dawn. Chance of isolated periods of disturbance in Antrarctic 
regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 398 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    48400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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