[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Feb             26 Feb             27 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar region 564 in the the centre of the solar disc 
has been observed to be increasing in size near the leader spot 
and magnetic complexity has not increased. This region has some 
potential for low level M class flares. The solar region to the 
east of 564 has decayed in its trailer spots. Interplanetary 
conditions have been nominal over the past 24hrs. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2222 3323
      Darwin               7   2221 2323
      Townsville           8   2222 2322
      Learmonth            3   20-- ----
      Culgoora             8   2122 3323
      Canberra             9   2222 3323
      Hobart              11   2222 3422
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-33 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 FEB : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   2122 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Feb    13    Unsettled chance of isolated active periods. 
26 Feb    13    Unsettled chance of isolated active periods. 
27 Feb    12    Unsettled chance of isolated active periods. 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests that isolated active periods can 
be expected in coming days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Feb    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Feb    50    near predicted monthly values 
26 Feb    50    near predicted monthly values 
27 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Some southern region sites may experience breif mild 
depressions after local dawn. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:   116000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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