[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Feb             21 Feb             22 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 500 to 400km/sec over 
the UT day. A small coronal hole is visible just west of solar 
central meridian. No significant flare activity observed past 
24 hours. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2311 0123
      Darwin               4   2211 0122
      Townsville           4   2211 1123
      Learmonth            5   3210 0223
      Culgoora             4   2311 0113
      Canberra             5   2311 0122
      Hobart               5   2310 0122
      Casey(Ant)           7   ---3 11--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8   2212 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Feb    12    Unsettled 
22 Feb    14    Unsettled chance of isolated active periods. 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions expected today. However, recurrence 
suggests that a mild trend of increasing activity is expected 
in coming days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Feb    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Feb    50    near predicted monthly values 
21 Feb    50    near predicted monthly values 
22 Feb    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed MUF's observed southern AUS/NZ region early 
in UT day yesterday. MUF's expected to be near normal for today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+09 (very high)
       X-ray background: A9.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 443 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    39900 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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