[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Feb             20 Feb             21 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased very mildly from 450 to 500km/sec 
over the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was northward until about 15UT. The field then 
fluctuated southward by up to 5nT for the rest of the UT day. 
There was no on disk activity of note over the past 24 hours. 
A small qequatorial coronal hole structure visible in US SOHO 
EIT284 imagery is just past the centre of the solar disk. A larger, 
but more northerly positioned coronal hole, is visible to the 
west of the centre of the solar disk. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2211 2332
      Darwin               7   1221 1332
      Townsville           6   1101 2332
      Learmonth            7   2111 1332
      Culgoora             5   2100 1322
      Canberra             7   2210 2333
      Hobart               7   1211 1333
      Casey(Ant)          15   33-3 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2212 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Feb     6    Quiet 
20 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Feb    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions expected today. However, recurrence 
suggets that a mild trend of increasing activity is expected 
in coming days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions mostly near normal. Chance for mild degradation 
coming days, at highlatitudes only due to coronal hole wind streams. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Feb    37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Feb    35    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
20 Feb    50    near predicted monthly values 
21 Feb    50    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Unexpected depressed MUFs observed in Southern Aus/NZ 
region yesterday. Southern Aus region MUFs again depressed after 
local dawn this morning. The cause of the depression is unclear, 
with only quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed 
overnight. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+09 (very high)
       X-ray background: A9.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 458 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:   131000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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