[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 102/50

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Feb             19 Feb             20 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Three B-class 
flares were recorded- the largest being a B4.9 at 2006UT. 
As expected, the solar wind stream weakened further with 
the passage of the coronal hole from the geoeffective 
position. The solar wind speed decreased from 550 km/s to 
400km/s (approx.) over the UT day. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained mildly 
positive (upto approximately +5nT) for most part of the day. 
Bz is currently close to the normal value. The solar activity 
is expected to remain very low during the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet with isolated 
unsettled periods recorded at some high latitude locations. 

Estimated Indices 17 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   0101 1212
      Darwin               3   1101 1212
      Townsville           1   0101 0202
      Learmonth            1   0001 0212
      Culgoora             1   0000 0202
      Canberra             2   1101 0202
      Hobart               2   0101 1202
      Casey(Ant)           9   12-3 2322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3113 3221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Feb     8    Quiet 
19 Feb     6    Quiet 
20 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: As expected, the geomagnetic activity has continued 
to decline with the weakening of the solar wind stream. The 
geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet 
levels during the next 3 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
at most locations during the next 3 days. However there is 
a slight chance of isolated minor degradations at some high 
latitude locations on 18 February. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Feb    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Feb    68    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
19 Feb    70    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
20 Feb    70    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain normal in 
Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+09 (very high)
       X-ray background: A9.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 547 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:   454000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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