[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 17 10:40:57 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb:  99/46

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Feb             18 Feb             19 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Region
556(N15W55) produced a C1.6 flare at 0258UT. No other 
significant activity was recorded. The solar wind stream 
has started to weaken as the coronal hole is moving away 
from the geoeffective position. The solar wind speed 
decreased from 600 km/s to 450km/s by 1800UT and then 
increased to 530 km/s (approx) in the next few hours. 
The solar wind speed is again decreasing at the time of 
this report and is approximately 500 km/s at the moment. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) remained very close to the normal value 
throughout the UT day. The solar wind stream may be 
expected to weaken further as the coronal hole moves 
further away from the geoeffective position. The solar 
activity is expected to remain very low during the next 
three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Mostly quiet to 
unsettled with isolated active periods recorded at some high 
latitude locations. 

Estimated Indices 16 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   3111 2112
      Darwin               5   3111 2112
      Townsville           4   2111 2112
      Learmonth            4   3111 1112
      Culgoora             4   2111 2112
      Canberra             4   2112 2112
      Hobart               5   3111 2112
      Casey(Ant)          14   4--3 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             18   4435 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Feb    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible. 
18 Feb    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
19 Feb     8    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods 
possible. 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline 
during the next few days due to an anticipated weakening 
of the solar wind stream during this period. The geomagnetic 
activity is expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled 
levels on most locations with isolated active periods 
possible at high latitudes on 17 February. The geomagnetic 
activity is expected to decline further during the following 
two days thereafter. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be 
observed at high latitude locations on 17 February. 
HF conditions are expected to remain normal on most
other locations during the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Feb    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Feb    55    near predicted monthly values 
18 Feb    60    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
19 Feb    60    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 682 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:   576000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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