[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 16 10:30:39 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Soalr activity was very low today as well. No
significant activity was recorded. The solar wind stream
is still going strong due to the continuing coronal hole
effect. The solar wind speed remained between 600 km/s and
750km/s (approx.) throughout the UT day. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed
minor to mild (approx. +/- 5nT) fluctuations throughout the
UT day. The solar wind stream may be expected to remain
strong on 16 February and then show gradual weakening during
the following two days as the coronal hole moves away from
the geoeffective position. The solar activity is expected to
remain very low during this period. Region 554(S09W29) is the
largest region on the visible solar disk. Region 554 and
559(N08W57) have some chance of producing C-flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Mostly quiet to
active with minor storm periods recorded at some high latitude
locations.
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 14 3334 2323
Darwin 12 3333 2323
Townsville 14 3334 2323
Learmonth 17 3234 3433
Culgoora 12 3333 2323
Canberra 17 3334 2433
Hobart 14 3334 2322
Casey(Ant) 26 4-54 3433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 FEB :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Hobart 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18 3334 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 20 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible at high latitudes.
17 Feb 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
18 Feb 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity expected to remain enhanced due
to the continued coronal hole effect for approximately two more
days. Active and isolated minor storm periods may be observed
on 16 February- especially on high latitude locations. Isolated
active periods may be observed on 17 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
may be observed on 16 February- especially at mid and high
latitude locations due to anticipated continued enhancement
in geomagnetic activity during this period. Minor degradation
are possilbe on high latitudes on 17 February as well.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 45 Depressed 5%/ near predicted monthly values.
17 Feb 55 near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 60 about 5% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions may
be observed on 16 February in Aus/NZ regions, especially
in the southern regions due to an anticipated continued
rise in the geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 625 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 144000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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