[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 04

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z FEBRUARY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Feb             22 Feb             23 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34
COMMENT: Interplanetary conditions were nominal over the past 
24 hours. No significant flare activity observed past 24 hours. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1110 1122
      Darwin               4   2210 1122
      Townsville           3   2110 1122
      Learmonth            4   1220 1122
      Culgoora             2   1110 1112
      Canberra             3   1101 1212
      Hobart               3   1110 1211
      Casey(Ant)           6   ---0 312-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 FEB : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2111 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Feb    12    Unsettled 
22 Feb    14    Unsettled chance of isolated active periods. 
23 Feb    16    Unsettled chance of isolated active periods. 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests that a mild trend of increasing 
activity is expected in coming days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Feb    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Feb    50    near predicted monthly values 
22 Feb    50    near predicted monthly values 
23 Feb    50    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 446 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    86800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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