[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 04

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/--    1627UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
 M1/--    1920UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Dec             31 Dec             01 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 29 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3434 3323
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           13   3333 3323
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra            16   2434 3322
      Hobart              16   2434 3322
      Casey(Ant)          23   35-4 4323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16   3223 2344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
31 Dec     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Dec    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Dec    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
31 Dec    35    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Jan    35    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 439 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    32400 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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