[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 04

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Dec             30 Dec             31 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 28 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2223 2343
      Darwin              11   2222 2343
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            9   3123 2--3
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra            13   2233 2344
      Hobart              13   2233 2343
      Casey(Ant)          19   3-23 3354
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1131 1132     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Dec     6    Quiet 
30 Dec     7    Quiet 
31 Dec     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Dec    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Dec    45    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Dec    45    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
31 Dec    45    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 481 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    94400 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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