[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 04

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Dec             29 Dec             30 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              95/41


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
27/0025UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 27 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2332 2223
      Darwin               7   1232 1223
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            9   2232 2232
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             8   1332 1133
      Hobart               8   2332 2123
      Casey(Ant)          12   ---- 3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              48   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3322 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Dec     6    Quiet 
30 Dec     7    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Dec    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Dec    40    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
29 Dec    40    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Dec    40    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 505 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   165000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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