[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 04

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Dec             28 Dec             29 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3232 2323
      Darwin               8   2222 2322
      Townsville          12   323- ----
      Learmonth           10   3232 2322
      Culgoora             7   2221 1322
      Canberra            12   3332 2333
      Hobart              11   3332 1323
      Casey(Ant)          23   4--- -433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            15   (Quiet)
      Canberra            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              73   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             12   3442 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Dec     7    Quiet 
29 Dec     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be nominal. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Dec    37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Depressed by 25% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Dec    35    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Dec    35    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Dec    35    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 440 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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