[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 31 11:07:19 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 1047UT possible lower European
M4.2 2219UT Confirmed lower West Pacific
East Australia/NZ
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar region 715 now located at N03E47 preduced the
M2 and M4 events. Both ecents were asscociated with Type II radio
sweeps. The M4 event which was observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph
was also observed in Culgoora H-alpha imagery as a 3 Normal flare 2147-2259UT,
a weak proton event may follow this flare. Two coronal mass ejections are now
assumed to be enroute to the Earth. Region location at east 47 degrees may
reduce the geoeffectiveness of these events. Solar wind speed has been
moderately elevated over past 24 hours, presumably in association with a
coronal hole wind stream. Two shocks in the solar wind are expected second
half of the UT day 01 Jan. Further flares expected from this region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet to active.
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 20 35-3 4323
Darwin - ---- ----
Learmonth 20 24-3 5324
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 17 24-3 4322
Hobart 14 24-3 4312
Casey(Ant) 19 4--3 3424
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 15 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Hobart 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 4434 4222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 9 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jan 30 Initially quiet, minor storm second half UT day.
02 Jan 20 Initially at minor storm levels, then declining
to active.
COMMENT: Unexpected geomanetic activity over night presumed in
association with elevated solar wind speed conditions. The geomagnetic
field is expected to be quiet for today. Storm conditions expected
second half UT day 01 Jan to first half UT day 02 Jan due to
recent coronal mass ejection events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event. Weak event possible.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
02 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Fair to normal HF conditions expected today. HF conditions
expected to deteriorate during interval late 01-03 Jan due to
anticipated arrival of coronal mass ejection events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 35 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
02 Jan 5 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today. Depressed conditions
expected 02 Jan, possible extending to 03 Jan due to anticipated
arrival of coronal mass ejections. Effects are expected to be
strongest for southern Aus/NZ region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 88600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list