[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 2 10:46:24 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SN 0720UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24hrs. An
M1.1 flare from AR708 occurred at 07UT and ARs 707 and 708 are
growing in size and complexity, increasing the chance of flare
activity. A CME (coronal mass ejection) occurred at 0755UT but
appeared to be directed to the north-west rather an an eartward
directed halo event. The effect of the high speed coronal hole
wind stream appears to be declining as solar wind speed declined
from 650 to 550 km/sec. The north -south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field, Bz, continues to fluctuate between +/-4nT, although
the offset was slightly more negative 0-7UT. Solar wind temperature
and density are nominal. The coronal hole that is positioned
near the equator will continue to affect the solar wind stream
for the next day, although it's effect will decline as it rotates
off the western limb. Another southern hemisphere coronal hole
is rotating into geoeffective position.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 3333 1322
Darwin 9 2332 1323
Townsville 11 2333 1323
Learmonth 12 3333 1322
Culgoora 8 2332 1212
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 8 2332 1222
Casey(Ant) 20 4-54 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 DEC :
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 16 (Quiet)
Culgoora 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra NA
Hobart 118 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 15 3432 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
03 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Dec 39 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was quiet to minor storm over
the last 24 hours. An active to minor storm period occurred from
06-09UT. High latitudes showed an increase in activity in response
and also due to the bias toward negative Bz. Similar conditions
are expected to prevail for the next 2 days, with the chance
of isolated Active periods. Elevated solar wind stream parameters
and fluctuating Bz are due to the influence of the geoeffective
coronal hole whose effect appears to be diminishing.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Dec Fair Fair-Poor Poor
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected over most regions
for the next 24 hours. Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed on mid-high latitudes for the
next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec 65 near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 65 near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 56 Near predicted monthly values
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 635 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 194000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list