[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 1 10:45:17 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
two recorded C-class events. A C4.8-class flare at 0635UT from
region 708 and a C1.8-class flare at 1055UT from region 707.
The solar wind parameters remain at elevated levels while the
earth is currently under the influence of a coronal hole wind
stream. Solar wind velocity has risen from 550km/s at 0000UT
to 650km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, continues to fluctuate
between +/-5nT. The sizable coronal hole that is positioned near
the equator will continue to affect the solar wind stream for
the next 2 days. Another southern hemisphere located coronal
hole is also due to rotate into geoeffective position after this
time. Current active sunspot regions are only expected to produce
C-class events over the next 2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 13 3332 3333
Darwin 11 3332 2234
Townsville 11 3332 2323
Learmonth 13 3332 3333
Culgoora 14 3432 2333
Canberra 15 33-- ----
Hobart 16 3442 2333
Casey(Ant) 21 4--- 4333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora 141 (Severe storm)
Canberra NA
Hobart 78 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 15 3333 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
02 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
03 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was Quiet to predominantly
Unsettled over the last 24 hours. These conditions are expected
to continue for the next 2 days, with the chance of isolated
Active periods. Current elevated solar wind stream parameters
and fluctuating Bz are due to the influence of the geoeffective
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected over most regions
for the next 24 hours. Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed on mid-high latitudes for the
next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 60 near predicted monthly values
02 Dec 65 near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 65 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
all Australian/NZ regions, with the chance of minor degradations
possible for Southern Aus/NZ regions over the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 546 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 194000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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