[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 December 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 3 10:29:38 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z DECEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Effects of a coronal hole solar wind stream have continued
to decline over the past 24 hours with wind speeds slowly decreasing
down to approximately 440 km/s. There is the chance of a glancing
impact on 4 December from the CME observed in association with
the flare on 1 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 1112
Darwin 4 2121 1112
Townsville 2 1100 1111
Learmonth 3 2110 1121
Culgoora 2 1110 1112
Canberra - ---- ----
Hobart 4 1220 2111
Casey(Ant) 9 ---3 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 DEC :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 10 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 55 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 1352 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 10 Quiet to unsettled
04 Dec 20 Unsettled with possible active and isolate minor
storm periods.
05 Dec 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity abated over the past 24 hours as
coronal hole effects decline. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly quiet to unsettled for 3 December, with mildly increased
activity possible for 4 December due to the anticipated glancing
impact of the CME observed on 1 December. Isolated minor storm
periods are possible for 4 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected over most regions
for the next 24 hours. Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed for mid-high latitudes for 4-5
December as the result of anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec 65 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
04 Dec 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
05 Dec 55 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected over most regions
for the next 24 hours. Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed for southern Aus/NZ regions
for 4-5 December as the result of anticipated mildly elevated
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 624 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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