[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 04

Fri Aug 27 09:45:23 EST 2004

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug:  98/45

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Aug             28 Aug             29 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
a C1.8 class event at 0210UT from region 663 and a B8.4 class 
event at 1300UT that was the source of a non earth directed CME 
observed on the LASCO C3 imagery from 1400UT-2200UT. The solar 
wind speed climbed from 350km/s to 450km/s between 1200UT and 
1600UT along with a notable increase in solar wind stream density 
and temperature. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) was mostly north for the entire UT day, ranging 
from 0 to 10nT. No change was observed in any current sunspot 
sizes or magnetic complexity over the last 24hrs. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1110 1212
      Darwin               4   1111 2212
      Townsville           3   1011 2212
      Learmonth            2   1000 2201
      Culgoora             1   0010 1112
      Canberra             2   1100 1202
      Hobart               1   1100 1102
      Casey(Ant)           5   2321 1112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             5   (Quiet)
      Canberra            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              7   1212 3222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was quiet over the last 24 
hours and is expected to remain so for the next two days, with 
the chance of some isolated unsettled periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions are expected over the the 
next 2 days with the chance of minor degradation periods at low 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Aug    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Aug    55    near predicted monthly values 
28 Aug    55    near predicted monthly values 
29 Aug    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions are expected to continue for the 
next 2 days over most Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
       X-ray background: B1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    37100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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