[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 26 09:40:30 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. The only
notable activity being a C1.3 class event at 0515UT from region
661, which has almost rotated off disk. The solar wind speed
rose quickly from 300km/s at 0800UT to 340km/s after which it
steadily increased to 380km/s at 1400UT, after which it began
to slowly decline to be 350km/s at the time of this report. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
was south at -5nT from 0000UT till 1100UT upon which it remained
close to nuetral for the rest of the UT day. None of the active
regions on the disk displayed any growth or sizable decay over
the last 24hrs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 1211
Darwin 3 1111 1212
Townsville 3 1201 1211
Learmonth 2 0111 1201
Culgoora 2 0101 1211
Canberra 2 0100 1210
Hobart 2 0111 1201
Casey(Ant) 4 2222 0111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet levels for the next three days with the chance of some
isolated unsettled periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next 3 days with some possibility of minor depressions
and degradations at high latitudes during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 55 near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 55 near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 55 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
during the next 3 days in most Aus/NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 48100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list