[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 25 09:35:40 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today- the
largest flare of the day being a B7.6 at 1352UT. This
flare came from the eastern limb where region 655 is
due to appear on the disk on 25 August. This flare was
associated to a CME, which is not earthward directed.
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from
380 km/s to 320 km/s (approx.) over the UT-day. The
anticipated strengthening in the solar wind stream due
to a small coronal hole effect did not eventuate. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained mostly near its normal value
throughout the UT day. Region 661(N07W74) is still
the largest region on the solar disk. Almost all the
active regions on the disk are either stable or showing
decay.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 2111
Darwin 3 1111 2112
Townsville 3 1111 2110
Learmonth 3 1111 2101
Culgoora 3 1111 2111
Canberra 2 1101 2101
Hobart 3 1111 2110
Casey(Ant) 6 2322 1110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 7 2222 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 8 Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible.
26 Aug 8 Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible.
27 Aug 8 Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels for the next three days with some
possibility of rising upto unsettled levels at times during
this period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal during the next 3 days with some possibility of
minor depressions and degradations at high latitudes during
this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by upto 35% with periods of depressions
and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 60 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
26 Aug 60 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
27 Aug 60 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal during the next 3 days in most Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 74700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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