[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 August 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Aug             29 Aug             30 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours, 
with only minor B-class events. The solar wind speed was steady 
at around 420km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT over the UT day. 
No significant change was observed in any current sunspot sizes 
or magnetic complexity over the last 24hrs. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 1122
      Darwin               3   1111 1123
      Townsville           4   2111 1123
      Learmonth            3   2110 1122
      Culgoora             3   1011 1222
      Canberra             3   1110 1122
      Hobart               3   1110 1122
      Casey(Ant)           6   13-1 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra            33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2111 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled over 
the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next two 
days, with the chance of some isolated unsettled periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions are expected over most regions for 
the next 2 days, with the chance of isolated degradation periods 
at low latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Aug    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Aug    55    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
29 Aug    55    near predicted monthly values 
30 Aug    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions are expected to continue for the 
next 2 days over most Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
       X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 394 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   113000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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