[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 17 09:57:58 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0347UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 134/88


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Aug             18 Aug             19 Aug
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             115/66
COMMENT: Solar region 656 still has the capability of producing 
significant flare activity although the region appears to be 
decreasing in complexity slightly. CME activity associated with 
recent solar flare activity from region 656 does not appear to 
be Earthward directed, although there is the chance of a glancing 
impact. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   0210 1112
      Darwin               4   1210 2223
      Townsville           3   0200 1222
      Learmonth            2   0110 1212
      Culgoora             2   0210 1112
      Canberra             2   0200 1111
      Hobart               1   0100 1111
      Casey(Ant)           5   2321 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 AUG : 
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              7   2112 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Aug    16    Quiet to unsettled with the small chance of active 
                and isolated minor storm periods. 
18 Aug    12    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 15 August and 
is current for interval 16-17 August. There is still the chance 
that recent CME activity associated with flare activity from 
solar region 656 may have a glancing impact on the Earth during 
17 August. Active and possible minor storm periods are expected 
to follow should the impact occur, otherwise mostly quiet to 
unsettled conditions are expected. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Possible mildly degraded HF conditions for 17 August 
for mid-high latitudes as the result of anticipated mildly elevated 
levels of geomagnetic activity. SWFs are expected to continue 
for the next two days, due to active solar region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Aug    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Aug    45    Enhanced 10% to depressed 5-15%. 
18 Aug    55    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
19 Aug    65    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 15 August 
and is current for interval 16-17 August. Possible mildly degraded 
HF conditions for 17 August for southern Aus/NZ regions as the 
result of anticipated mildly elevated levels of geomagnetic activity. 
SWFs are expected to continue for the next two days, due to active 
solar region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    72300 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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