[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 18 09:52:36 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4 1937UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar region 656 still has the capability of producing
significant flare activity and has produced two M class flares
and a short wave fadeout in the last 24 hrs. AR 656 is rotating
off the western limb and should not be geoeffective after the
18th. A small coronal hole is in the centre of the solar disc
but does not yet appeared to have affected solar wind conditions
at L1. CME activity associated with recent solar flare activity
from region 656 and also from the south-eastern limb does not
appear to be Earthward directed, although there is the chance
of a glancing impact.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 2111 2432
Darwin 8 1111 2432
Townsville 7 2111 2332
Learmonth 8 2001 2432
Culgoora 9 2111 2431
Canberra 9 1011 1442
Hobart 9 1011 1442
Casey(Ant) 8 2221 1332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 AUG :
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 2112 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The IMF has been northward for the first half of the
UT day and fluctuating near zero and mainly northward for the
second half. Solar wind velocities are nominal 300-360km/sec,
temperatures and pressures have been below average for the day.
There is still the chance that recent CME activity associated
with solar region 656 and an approaching region in the south-east
may have a glancing impact on the Earth after 17 August. Active
and possible minor storm periods are expected to follow should
the impact occur, otherwise mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: An SWF centred on the central Pacific occurred at 2224UT
as a result of an M class flare from AR656. SWFs may still occur
on the 18th due to AR656 before it rotates off the limb. Apart
from disturbances due to AR656, propagation conditions appear
nominal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
about 20% above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 55 Enhanced 10% to depressed 5-15%.
19 Aug 55 about 10% above predicted monthly values
20 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 16 August
and is current for interval 17-19 August (SWFs) . Propagation
conditions appear nominal with slightly elevated MUFs across
the region. SWFs may continue on the 18th due to AR656.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B5.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 22500 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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