[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 16 09:13:01 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0508UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0600UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.6 1132UT possible lower European
M9.4 1241UT probable lower European
M1.2 1845UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar region 656 produced all of the significant xray
flares for the day. These flares all appear impulsive and were
not associated with mass ejections. Solar wind speed was nominal
at 390 km/sec, and the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was northward over the past 24 hours. ACE EPAM
data shows no sign of increased flux levels, which can be a precursor
for CME arrival. A weak southward (non Earth) directed mass ejection
is first visible in LASCO C3 at 0018UT. The association with
on disk activity is not immediately obvious, perhaps related
to a erupting solar filament late on 14 Aug. Solar region 656
is now at west 48 and remains active, and flare potential remains
good with apparent magnetic development visible in trailers and
intermediate areas of 656 from Learmonth GONG magnetograms from
13 and 15 Aug. A small coronal hole is visible in SOHO EIT 284
imagery in the southern solar hemisphere just east of solar central
meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 1100 1011
Darwin 2 2100 1111
Townsville 2 2100 1012
Learmonth 1 1100 0010
Culgoora 2 1201 1011
Canberra 1 1100 1001
Hobart 0 0100 1001
Casey(Ant) 5 2230 1011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 3123 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 16 Initially quiet, then becoming active.
17 Aug 16 Initially active, then declining to unsettled
levels.
18 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 15 August and
is current for interval 16-17 August. Geomagnetic field initially
expected to be quiet today. However, CME activity associated
with recent flare activity is expected to have a glancing impact
on the Earth late 16/17 August. Active and possible minor storm
periods are expected to follow, with unsettled to active levels
expected to persist into 17 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected for late 16-17
August for mid-high latitudes as the result of anticipated mildly
elevated levels of geomagnetic activity. SWFs are expected to
continue for the next few days, due to active solar region.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 65 Enhanced 10% to depressed 10-20%.
17 Aug 40 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 15 August
and is current for interval 16-17 August. Mostly normal HF conditions
are initially expected for 16 August, with mildly degraded HF
conditions expected for late 16 early 17 August for southern
Aus/NZ regions only, as the result of anticipated mildly elevated
levels of geomagnetic activity. SWFs are expected to continue
for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 47400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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