[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 15 09:59:12 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED** MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.0 13/2343UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.4 0414UT confirmed lower E. Asia/Aust.
M7.4 0544UT confirmed lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.3 0756UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.0 0957UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.2 1008UT possible lower European
M5.6 1343UT possible lower European
M1.3 1818UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.3 2016UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.1 2029UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.2 2051UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar region 656 has the potential for futher significant
flare activity. LASCO imagery indicates CME activity in association
with the recent flare activity from solar region 656 may have
a glancing impact on the Earth during 16 August. Solar wind observations
indicate the possible glancing impact of the CME observed on
10 August during 14 August, however, the effects are relatively
insignificant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 2232 1112
Darwin 5 2222 1112
Townsville 6 1223 2112
Learmonth 5 1232 1112
Culgoora 4 1222 1012
Canberra 6 2232 1012
Hobart 6 1232 2011
Casey(Ant) 7 3232 0112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 2221 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Aug 20 Unsettled to active with the chance of isolated
minor storm periods.
17 Aug 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: CME activity associated with recent flare activity is
expected to have a glancing impact on the Earth during 16 August.
Active and possible minor storm periods are expected to follow,
with unsettled to active levels expected to persist into 17 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for 15 August,
with mildly degraded HF conditions expected for 16-17 August
for mid-high latitudes as the result of anticipated mildly elevated
levels of geomagnetic activity. SWFs are expected to continue
for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 60 about 10% above predicted monthly values
16 Aug 45 Enhanced 10% to depressed 10-20%.
17 Aug 40 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 13 August
and is current for interval 14-16 August (SWFs) . Mostly normal
HF conditions are expected for 15 August, with mildly degraded
HF conditions expected for 16-17 August for southern regions
as the result of anticipated mildly elevated levels of geomagnetic
activity. SWFs are expected to continue for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B6.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 427 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 75000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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