[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 12 09:57:41 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Minor continuous C class flare activity and one C7.6
flare at 1135UT was observed over the UT day, associated with
active region 656. This region continues to increase in magnetic
complexity and holds fair potential for M class flare activity.
Old AR652 is due to return on Aug 12th and this region produced
a number of M class flare events on the previous rotation. A
weak CME on the south eastern limb was observed by SOHO at 1854UT
on the 10th and may be geoeffective on the 14th.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 652 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 12 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 2223 2222
Darwin 6 2212 2223
Townsville 7 2113 2223
Learmonth 8 2222 2322
Culgoora 7 1223 2213
Canberra 7 2123 2222
Hobart 9 2224 2222
Casey(Ant) 13 3-33 3232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 4122 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity showed a slow decrease over the
first half of the UT day from 600km/s to 500km/s and then rose
to stabilise near 550km/s. The effects of the coronal hole high
speed solar wind stream are still being observed. IMF Bz was
mildly southwards for most of the UT day. Active intervals were
observed at high latitudes in response to extended Bz southwards.
Expect mostly quiet conditions at low to mid latitudes with isolated
unsettled periods becoming isolated active intervals at high
latitudes over the next 1 to 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Elevated critical frequencies were observed across low
latitudes during the night and a rapid drop pre-dawn. Spread-F
disturbance was observed at mid-latitudes pre-dawn but overall
less pronounced than yesterday. Critical frequencies were nominal.
High latitudes were disturbed by active polar cap conditions
from extended southward Bz. Expect similar conditions in the
following three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Aug 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Aug 45 near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 50 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
14 Aug 55 about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Low latitudes were mostly free of spread-F conditions
and exhibited a nighttime enhancement with rapid drop-off pre-dawn.
Mid latitudes were mostly nominal with less disturbed conditions
than yesterday. High latitudes showed the usual winter spread
F conditions with extra disturbance inside the polar cap from
extended Bz southward. Expect conditions to be similar in the
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 217000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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