[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    0505UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 147/101


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Aug             14 Aug             15 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            165/119
COMMENT: Solar region 656 has the potential for futher flare 
activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2211 2112
      Darwin               4   2211 1122
      Townsville           4   2211 2112
      Learmonth            5   2211 2212
      Culgoora             4   2211 2112
      Canberra             5   3211 2112
      Hobart               4   2211 2112
      Casey(Ant)          11   3432 2112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 AUG : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           15   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            53   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            71   (Active)
      Hobart              60   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   2234 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds have continued to decline over the 
past 24 hours down to approximately 500km/s. Solar wind speeds 
are expected to continue to decline over the next few days. The 
partial halo CME observed on 10 August is not expected to have 
a significant impact on the Earth. Geomagnetic conditions should 
be mostly unsettled to quiet over the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days with the chance of SWFs. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Aug    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Aug    50    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
14 Aug    55    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
15 Aug    55    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days with the chance of SWFs. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 543 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   162000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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