[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 11 09:56:12 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: B to minor C class flare activity was observed over
the UT day mostly associated with active region 656. This region
continues to grow in size and magnetic complexity and holds fair
potential for M class flare activity. Old AR652 is due to return
on Aug 12th and this region produced a number of M class flare
events on the previous rotation. Sacramento Peak Observatory
has reported moderate Ca XV emission on the north east limb today,
probably associated with the return of this region.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 652 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 12 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 2211 3332
Darwin 8 2212 3232
Townsville 10 2311 3332
Learmonth 12 3211 4332
Culgoora 7 2111 3322
Canberra 8 2111 3332
Hobart 8 2111 3332
Casey(Ant) 13 3332 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 AUG :
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13 2243 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 12 Unsettled
12 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity showed a steady increase over the
UT day. and is now slightly below 600 km/sec. Bz was mildly southwards
for long periods over the mid part of the UT day. Active intervals
were observed at high latitudes in isolated unsettled periods
at mid latitudes. Increasing solar wind paramters may be due
to the trailing section of the small coronal hole now in the
SW quadrant. Expect mostly quiet conditions at low to mid latitudes
with isolated unsettled periods becoming isolated active intervals
at high latitudes over the next 1 to 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Periods of Spread-F disturbance were observed across
mid-latitudes during the nighttime, particularly pre-dawn. Low
latitudes were unusually free of spread-F. High latitudes were
disturbed by active polar cap conditions from southward Bz. Expect
similar conditions today with improvements in the following two
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 45 near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 45 near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 50 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Low latitudes were unusually free of spread-F conditions
and only a small amount of spread and Es around dawn. Mid latitudes
were disturbed during the night with extensive spread F conditions,
although this was more moderate at northern and southern extremities
with the effect concentrated pre-dawn. High latitudes showed
the usual winter spread F conditions with extra disturbance inside
the polar cap from extended Bz southward. Expect conditions to
be similar today with improvements in the two days afterwards.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Aug
Speed: 373 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 26100 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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