[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 10 09:53:52 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Fast full-halo CME observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 08/09UT.
This appears to be a backside event with no anticipated geophysical
consequences. Active region 656 produced a number of C class
flares over the period and shows continuing growth and moderate
magnetic complexity. There is a possibility of isolated M class
flares from this region over the next three days. Culgoora radio
spectrograph has observed a general increase in background solar
radio noise most probably associated with active region 656.
A solar sector boundary crossing was observed on the ACE satellite
platform at 15UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 2232 1233
Darwin 9 2332 1233
Townsville 6 2222 1222
Learmonth 8 1222 1332
Culgoora 8 1232 1232
Canberra 9 2232 1333
Hobart 8 2232 1233
Casey(Ant) 9 3332 1223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 AUG :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 2210 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The coronal hole windstream continues to decline to
nominal solar wind levels. A solar sector boundary crossing was
observed on the ACE satellite platform at 15UT. Mild negative
Bz after this event resulted in isolated periods of active geomagnetic
conditions at high latitudes only. Otherwise geomagnetic conditions
were generally quiet. Expect continuing mostly quiet conditions
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly enhanced critical frequencies at low latitudes.
Slightly elevated critical frequencies and disturbed ionosphere
at high latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions expected next
few days. Chance isolated degradations at high latitudes in association
with geomagnetic activity. Possibility of SWFs over the next
few days if AR656 produces significant X-ray flare activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 45 near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 45 near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Spread-F conditions observed at Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Widespread spread-F and disturbed conditions observed Antarctic
region. Mostly normal HF conditions expected next three days.
Possibility of SWFs from AR656 if it produces significant X-ray
flares.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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