[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Aug             07 Aug             08 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: ACE solar wind speed gradually increased during the 
day to around 360km/sec. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was mildly southward (5nT) at times during the 
second half of the UT day. Solar activity has been minimal over 
the past 24 hours. Region 655 has declined. A coronal hole remains 
visible in SOHO EIT 284 imagery in the south east solar quadrant. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   0101 2112
      Darwin               3   1101 1222
      Townsville           4   1102 2212
      Learmonth            2   0001 1212
      Culgoora             2   0001 2112
      Canberra             2   0001 2111
      Hobart               2   0101 2111
      Casey(Ant)           2   0111 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 AUG : 
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1001 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Aug     5    Quiet 
07 Aug     5    Quiet 
08 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence patterns indicate that quiet conditions 
should persist for the next two days. A minor increase in geomagnetic 
activity to unsettled levels may occur on 08 Aug due to a coronal 
hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Aug    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by up tp 35% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Aug    35    near predicted monthly values 
07 Aug    35    near predicted monthly values 
08 Aug    35    near predicted monthly values 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09 (high)
       X-ray background: A7.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    31600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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